In just over two weeks, the VF+ will be having its mandatory triennial leadership election. Many might think a party with only 2% of the national vote would not matter to national politics. But in a country were everyone votes according to race (just over 4% of black people vote for the DA), the only means of change is through shifting the balance within each of the two racial blocs:

As the DA’s support collapses amid the coming of expropriation without compensation, the moment is ripe for a more hardline replacement of the liberal opposition. And only one of the two proposed candidates for the VF+ appears willing to grasp this opportunity.

As usual, Dr Mulder is remaining coy about his intentions, but press a careful ear up to the speaker while watching his recent interview with Alec Hogg, and you can hear the creaking of a continental shelf.

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A game of chicken

When the GNU started, I was disappointed to hear that my favoured political party, the VF+, would be joining the national coalition. After speaking with leaders, I grudgingly accepted that, in order to appear reasonable, and preserve their reputation for mature political engagement, this was a necessary concession.

But I also maintained (and wrote) that the clock was now ticking, and they would have to leave the coalition if they wished to demonstrate their seriousness in opposing the National Democratic Revolution. The coalition was bound to be a disaster, and even the DA would be reconsidering their role.

Martin van Staden was the only other comentator in the country who saw this coming, and recommended a very sensible middle ground, which would be for the DA to support a “moderate” (these terms are relative, of course) government through confidence and supply - that is, vote for Ramaphosa and his party to become the government, but otherwise stay out of cabinet themselves. That way, they could be the doorstop against MK and EFF government while keeping their hands clean and maintaining the freedom to criticise ANC policy.

Pieter Groenewald has been somewhat popular in his role as Minister of Prisons - after all, people hate crime in this country, and having a hardliner in charge of disciplining criminals, is welcomed by even the most serious black nationalists despite his ethnicity.

But Groenewald has been all too keen on this coalition, to the detriment of his party’s integrity.

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Struggle for the Cape

Recently, the party lost a highly principled member in Swellendam. Juan van Schalkwyk has been the target of an ocean of vitriol from the DA for his principled stance against their abuse of powers at the local level, including a scandal related to the alleged bribery of an ANC councilor to step down from his post and stand for the DA in the subsequent by-election, a move which is alleged to have involved Jaco Londt.

Now van Schalkwyk has resigned from his post, having lost the support of his leadership. van Schalkwyk has been a beacon of integrity in his post, and has stood up to some extraordinary measures by the DA, including removing checks and balances from local financial oversight, and the use of the hard left-wing civil servant Eda Barnard to shut down community safety initiatives as a violent riot engulfed the town in August of 2023.

For the past several months, there has been a war on for the hung municipal councils in the Cape, as VF+ councilors who object to crooked tenders, abuse of powers, impunity for egregious conduct, and refusal to engage with coalition partners (the DA prefer to collaborate across the aisle with the ANC counterparts) have been attacked as “collaborators”.

The Cape is Corné Mulder’s back yead - it is a sign of his integrity that his subordinates in the party hierarchy have felt the confidence to challenge the DA.

But because of the media bias against conservatives, the big papers have insisted on only covering the DA’s side of the story. Yet in every case we have looked into, it has turned out that the DA were protecting corrupt officials from investigation, and had threatened to remove the VF+ from every coalition in the province, preferring to do business even with openly communist parties.

If you want to see what this looks like, simply search this site for any of the following place names: Swellendam, Oudtshoorn, Bitou, Garden Route, Matzikamma, and Drakenstein.

While Dr Mulder has stuck to his guns in this, Pieter Groenewald reached over his head to strike a deal with John Steenhuisen to secure the coalitions and discipline his members for criticising their coalition partners, so as not to ruffle feathers at the national level.

Groenewald is perhaps understandably concerned about his party’s perception, but he is worried about the wrong eyes and ears. The strength of the VF+ lies not in its opposition to the ANC - it lies in its role as a more serious alternative to the DA.

Those who attack the VF+ will always do so. But the DA’s support is not as eternal as it may appear. Their recent performance in the GNU has demonstrated that they do not have the spine or audacity to challenge the ANC’s power.

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The battle for the soul of South Africa

Corné Mulder has demonstrated his character as a leader by pushing for Cape independence and intolerance of corruption, stances which have kept the Cape branch’s support stable, even as they lost 30% of it to the DA everywhere else in the last election.

If the VF+ do not manage to leave the GNU before the DA do, their support in the upcoming 2026 local elections will be forfeit. They have the opportunity to present the only systemic critique against the South African system, hold the DA’s increasing complacency with corruption in check, provide political cover for the coming civil resistance against land reform, and initiate a process for secession.

In the Western Cape, the majority of the voting population is made up of racial minorities. They vote consistently for the DA, and the voter participation rate of the black migrants from the Eastern Cape has been declining so consistently that they now represent only a quarter of the vote share.

The VF+ can become the final lever in a historic movement that could end the mortal trap that is the Union of South Africa.

In the north, it can become the battle standard for those who challenge the campaign for permanent dominance of the black nationalists, and a stinging goad upon the tender backsides of the soft social democrats in the Democratic Alliance.

Those who are afraid of Cape independence may take heart - it is a conservative rebellion, which seeks to preserve what little of value remains, not a utopian vision. Should secession be revived, even if it does not carry us all the way to independence, it will provide the leverage to force the ANC to change their philosophy of state.

They will not be alone - Solidariteit, AfriForum, Sakeliga, NEASA, the FMF and others will be seizing this moment to secure international support for resistance to expropriation, and we should not balk at radical challenges to the system.

If we do nothing, and continue same speed ahead, Ramaphosa’s reforms will liquidate this country, and sweep us into the same dustbin as Zimbabwe.

But if victory can be had in this tiny corner of our political landscape, we may yet live to see the end of racial domination in our lifetimes.

May God speed Dr Mulder to the parapet.

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