Twenty-six years after its inception, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is once again a focal point of friction between Pretoria and Washington. The current discord is exacerbated by perceptions in the US Congress that South Africa has strayed from its historical policy of nonalignment, potentially warranting its exclusion from the trade program.

AGOA mandates that beneficiary countries maintain market-based economies, political pluralism, and refrain from actions undermining US national security or violating human rights. To date, 20 countries have lost their AGOA status due to coups, conflicts, or human rights violations. There is no precedent for exclusion based on a nonaligned foreign policy, a principle consistent with South Africa's recent actions.

Parks Tau, South Africa's newly appointed Minister of Trade, Industry, and Competition, has called for an extension of the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) to provide long-term certainty for investors and traders between Africa and the US. In Washington, Tau is also engaging with Biden administration officials and congressional leaders to ensure South Africa's continued participation in Agoa.

Tau highlighted the synergy between Agoa and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), suggesting that the two initiatives could complement each other to bolster regional economic integration. "By providing long-term certainty to investors and traders, extending Agoa would help African countries to upgrade the level of integration and reach manufactured goods and secondary level value chain integration," he stated.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed the Biden administration's support for Agoa, emphasizing its role in strengthening economic ties between the US and Africa. But official American statements on South Africa’s place in the framework have remained ambiguous, and the deal is far from secure.

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Strained Bilateral Relations

Washington's concerns over South Africa's foreign policy orientation intensified when Pretoria hosted joint naval exercises with Russia and China in February 2023, coinciding with the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Tensions peaked in May when US Ambassador to South Africa, Ruben Brigety, alleged that Pretoria had supplied arms to Russia via the sanctioned ship Lady R, accusing South Africa of "outrageous" anti-Americanism and questioning its neutrality.

In June, four prominent US senators, including Chris Coons, urged Secretary of State Antony Blinken to reconsider South Africa's eligibility for AGOA, citing the naval exercises, alleged arms supplies to Russia, and the impending BRICS Summit in South Africa. The senators also recommended relocating the AGOA forum from South Africa, though the event proceeded as planned.

The situation further deteriorated in October when South Africa's Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Naledi Pandor, held a call with the leader of Hamas. This, coupled with Pretoria's January 2024 accusation against Israel at the International Court of Justice for committing genocide in response to Hamas's October 7 attacks, fueled Washington's frustrations.

In response, Senator Coons introduced a draft of revised AGOA legislation demanding an immediate review of South Africa's status. Concurrently, the House Foreign Affairs Committee approved bipartisan legislation for a comprehensive review of bilateral relations, criticizing the African National Congress (ANC) for its closer ties with China and Russia and its historical alignment with malign actors.

The recent appointment of Ronald Lamola as a replacement for the hard left Naledi Pandor has not yet mollified American officials, as he has a similar record of anti-Israeli comments in his official capacity, which may risk the security of the trade negotiations.

However, the current political arrangement under the GNU may provide an ameliorative effect, as the United States maintains strong ties with the Democratic Alliance, with whom they have brokered several special provincial trade deals in the Western Cape.

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Leverage

South Africa's dual military engagements—with Russia and China, as well as the US—illustrated its nonaligned stance until recently, but the cancellation of military engagements with the United States and expansion to military cooperation with Iran have raised eyebrows. Moreover, South Africa's significant trade relationships with both China and the US underscore its strategic economic positioning - there is enough ambiguity and balance to threaten defection to the other axis of global power, and thus make negotiated gains.

Several areas stand out for enhanced cooperation. South Africa's peacekeeping efforts in Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, its endeavors to address domestic energy and infrastructure challenges, and the $8.5 billion Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) are highly attractive to the United States, who are interested in the suppression of Jihadists in Mozambique, M23 in the DRC, and the elimination of our coal-fired power plants.

Additionally, with recent coups destabilizing the Sahel and Central Africa, joint strategies for promoting democratic governance are attractive - Russian gains in influence in the Sahel belt have been alarming to many commentators in Washington, and South Africa remains a key power broker on the continent.

On the other hand, Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent speech to the US Congress and the obsequious reaction from its members suggests that South Africa’s partisan and interventionist stance on Israeli-Palestinian relations could have costs not revealed by simple observations of economic interest.

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