South Africa is urgently seeking a liquefied natural gas (LNG) deal with Qatar to stave off an impending energy crisis. As domestic supplies from Mozambique dwindle, authorities fear a "gas cliff" by 2027, potentially jeopardising 5% of the nation's GDP.

Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, the electricity minister, underscored the gravity of the situation while addressing lawmakers in Cape Town. Discussions with Qatar are ongoing, with fuel giant Sasol and state utility Eskom expected to lead any prospective agreement. Ramokgopa recently visited Doha, aiming to reassure industrial stakeholders reliant on gas-dependent operations.

With the long-term decline and inefficiency in PetroSA, the national liquid fuels company (highlighted in a recent Open Secrets report), the state is now forced to lobby on behalf of private sector giants like Sasol in order to keep the local fuel economy from being squeezed.

Plans to bolster infrastructure are also claimed to be underway. Transnet National Ports Authority is soliciting proposals for an LNG terminal at the Port of Ngqura, while a facility at Richards Bay is set to open in early 2028. These moves underscore the urgency of securing alternative gas supplies for Africa’s most industrialised economy.

This has been a long time coming, as Sasol, South Africa's largest fuel producer, stated that it planned to divest from its Mozambique pipeline project back in 2022. While this decision followed an escalation in the border conflict with Islamic militants, the company claimed that the decision had more to do with their belief in the future of “green” energy.

The $6 billion, 2,600-kilometre African Renaissance Pipeline had initially been under consideration, with Sasol contemplating a minor stake. However, TotalEnergies suspended its Mozambique developments the previous year due to escalating Islamist insurgency. South Africa's attempts to stabilise the conflict have been largely fruitless, and our troops have been largely withdrawn as they have become redundant in the face of more competent performances from Rwandan and private military units.

The company, South Africa’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, had committed to reducing emissions by 30% by 2030. This would largely involve replacing coal—currently critical to its synthetic fuel production—with natural gas.

At the time, Sasol already transported gas from Mozambique via the 865-kilometre Rompco pipeline, supplying its Sasolburg operations and partially feeding its Secunda facility. With a quarter reduction planned in coal usage, the company’s role was set to shift from a seller to a buyer of natural gas, exposing it to global price volatility, which had been amplified by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

This is not so much a change in basic strategy as geographically defined logistics problem. Gas from Mozambique's Pande and Temane fields, operated by Sasol, is expected to decline by 2026, raising concerns for pipeline operator Rompco. Sasol may stop third-party supply by June 2026.

With no immediate alternative sources in the region (except for the Matola LNG facility) Qatar’s LNG exports have become a vital emergency option.

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