The DA has gained more than 10% of black voter support for the first time, but have lost their majority in the Cape. Younger voters lean more strongly to the ANC and EFF.
A recent survey conducted by the Brenthurst Foundation, spanning 24 February to 11 March 2025, has yielded a number of unexpected results. The report itself, available here, contains a large number of graphics, which we encourage you to browse yourself. The poll surveyed 3,837 registered voters with a 20-minute questionnaire, and was weighted to reflect national demographics by gender, age, and province, and carries a reported margin of error of 2%.
National trends
Typical of most surveys in South Africa, seven in ten respondents perceive South Africa to be on the wrong course, mainly driven by economic grievances. Economic pessimism is pervasive: 72% deem the country’s fiscal health poor, while 52% report unfavourable living conditions for their households. Unemployment, as usual, emerges as the paramount concern, followed by illegal immigration and corruption.
Among political figures, President Cyril Ramaphosa commands the least negative net favourability rating at a -2% balance, while the Government of National Unity (GNU) as a whole fares marginally better at -1%, outpacing the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), both languishing at -34%, and Jacob Zuma remains highly divisive at -40%. The GNU garners approval from 57% of respondents, with 60% judging it superior to its ANC predecessor. Notably, five ministries led by opposition figures outrank the Presidency in public esteem.
The most favourably viewed politicians are Cyril Ramaphosa, Gayton McKenzie, Geordin Hill-Lewis and John Steenhuisen, though nobody received an overall positive rating, and the hardcore black nationalists receiving the worst scores.
Voting intensions have remained stable for the most part, with the ANC steady at 41% of the vote, rising to 43% when adjusted for turnout. Regionally, the ANC retains dominance in the Eastern Cape (63%) and gains ten points in Gauteng (45%), though MK and the EFF have lost ground since 2021. In KwaZulu-Natal, MK captures 42%, but the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) has eroded support from both the ANC and MK. Coalitions find favour with 78% of voters, who prefer an ANC-DA-IFP axis—a configuration endorsed by majorities of ANC and DA supporters, and over a third of EFF and MK adherents.
Foreign policy preferences remain unsurprising, with 80% advocating stronger African ties, while 59% seek closer relations with China, the European Union, and the United States. Russia is less popular and more polarising. 64% are aware of President Trump’s February 2025 executive order slashing aid to South Africa. Of these, 55% view the move as unjustified, and 74% anticipate negative effects. The vast majority blame the government for this response rather than AfriForum, who were held responsible by only 16% of those surveyed.
The DA, the Cape and the Metros
The DA has seen an unexpected national bump up to 26%, or 27% with turnout factored in, but has been weakened in the Western Cape, falling 9% to 46% since 2021, with the EFF jumping ten points, where the black community is more radical than most places, and many Coloureds have been divided on the party’s position on the Gaza War.
Surprisingly, the DA appears to have broken the ebony ceiling for the first time, becoming bigger than the EFF among black voters at 11%. This reflects speculations made in this paper before, and likely reflects the party’s insistence on defending racial discrimination and land redistribution policies which, while not a high priority for black voters on the whole, likely indicate a commitment to the legal privileges to which they have come to be entitled.
This seems especially likely given the age demographics - the DA is strongest among the middle-aged, who care most about career advancement and functioning infrastructure. ANC and EFF support is stronger with younger voters, indicating a potentially reversing trend for the country at large over the coming years, while elderly voters lean strongly to the ANC. Considered together with the above racial shift in DA support, it seems likely that the growth in black support is not a lasting one. Radicalisation of the youth in recent years, both in schools and at universities, would add to this impression.
The fall in Cape support for the DA may be driven largely by mismanagement of the City, where 54% of survey participants respond saying that the metro is heading in the wrong direction. Even among DA voters, only 57% believe the city is being run properly, with 42% saying it is headed in the wrong direction. The Cape however still receives the most positive overall impression of sound governance. The rest of the metropolitan governments show unsurprisingly negative perceptions, and the DA is deemed the most competent steward of governance by 29%, narrowly ahead of the ANC at 24%.
VF+ support has collapsed in Pretoria, likely due to their leadership’s venal attachment to office in a national coalition where they have no influence, which is seen by much of the party’s rank and file and voter base as a pointless and corrupt arrangement.
