A common thread emerged from Democratic Alliance (DA) leader John Steenhuisen’s election manifesto speech this past Sunday and Premier Alan Winde’s State of the Province on Monday: the Western Cape is much better off than the rest of South Africa because of the DA difference. 

This raises the question, is the Western Cape really better off since the DA came to power in 2009? Well, let’s have a look at some stats:

• The province’s expanded unemployment stood at 23.6% in 2010. While the latest figures from WESGRO indicate an increase to 25.6%
• The crime rate has also seen a significant rise. The Western Cape government’s (WC government) figures show that in 2010, for every 100,000 people, 38 were murdered. Compared to last year's figure of 57 murders per 100,000 people. 
• Economically, there's been a downturn as well. By the end of the DA's first term in 2013, the Western Cape's Real GDP per capita was R100 thousand, but WESGRO’S latest data shows a decline to R90.3 thousand. This suggests a decrease in the amount of money available per person in the province over the past decade.
• Inequality, as measured by the GINI coefficient, has also worsened from 0.58 in 2010 to 0.625 in 2021 (WC government), highlighting an increase in income disparity among the population.

So, we have more people unemployed, a smaller economy per person, higher inequality, and more crime. If you were to compare the Western Cape (on these same statistics) to a fellow developing country such as Malaysia (which was poorer than the Western Cape in 2009), the Western Cape would be doing embarrassingly badly.

Wait… Does this mean that the DA is lying?

Well, technically no, due to the disclaimer they add: “better than the rest of South Africa” since if you were to compare these stats to the rest of SA the Western Cape would be doing better. 

But this doesn’t let the DA off the hook yet, as the Western Cape was already performing better than the rest of SA in 2009 when the DA came into power.

So, does the DA do a better job or not? Is the Western Cape really better off under the DA? People outside the Western Cape often mark how well functioning the province is: how clean the streets in the Western Cape are compared to their home province. Is this all just a myth?

The answer is more nuanced than either what the DA or Cameron Dugmore would lead you to believe. Yes, the DA does do a better job in what little they control. The provincial government has little meaningful power: it doesn’t control the justice system to rein in criminals, nor does it have any meaningful influence over the economy of the Western Cape.

No matter how well the DA keeps the streets clean or how many clean audits they get every year, the Western Cape, and every Kaapenaars’ future, is at the whim of the National Government.

The answer is to get rid of the National Government then, no? Well, unfortunately, it’s not that easy. The DA and Multi-Party Charter (MPC) partners want you to believe that we are on the cusp of a sane (relatively) centrist coalition taking power. As John Steenhuisen said: “We (MPC) are polling at 36% this is only 16% away from a majority!” Sorry to break it to you John, but in 2021 the same MPC partners managed to get 33% of the vote. How are you supposed to make up 14% in three months when in 3 years you guys only managed to increase by 3%? To say it’s a moonshot is an understatement. 

In fact, if you take the combined national vote of the African National Congress (ANC) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) since 1994 it has pretty much remained around the two thirds majority point. This corroborates with John’s previous excitement that the non-African Nationalist grouping make up the other one third. While there has been a great fuss over the ANC declining, there has been a failure to acknowledge where those leaving the ANC are going to. It’s not to the rational centre it is to more extremist offshoots of the ANC like the EFF and now uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK).

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No matter how hard Kaapenaars vote against the axis of corruption and incompetence (the ANC / EFF / MK et al.) our future will be determined by what other South African voters decide.

So, what then? Do the people of the Cape deserve to suffer just because the rest of the country actively wants the ANC / EFF / MK in power? What about devolution and federalism, won’t that help us?

Well, no. Unfortunately, both devolution and federalism require the consent of the rest of the country. Devolution ultimately requires the National Government to willingly secede some of its authority to the provincial government. Whereas Federalism would require a substantial rewrite of the constitution, approved by a two-thirds majority in parliament.

The DA have only recently started pushing for decentralisation via devolution, despite having federalism as a party policy since the earliest days. However, despite pledging to get control over policing and rail in the Western Cape in 2019 they have failed to actively pursue this besides just asking the national government nicely. As it is in-line with their pursuit of greater autonomy, the Cape Independence Advocacy Group (CIAG) took the initiative to form the group to investigate how devolution may be achieved. The DA along with other groups were invited to this “Western Cape Devolution Working Group (WCDWG)”.

Phil Craig, former CIAG spokesperson and current leader of the Referendum Party (RP), had this to say about the WCDWG:

“It was clear that after working with pro-Autonomy organisations that devolution was politically unobtainable. This led us to conceive an alternate route to autonomy via claiming the right to self-determination for the Western Cape. This led to the creation of the Western Cape Peoples Bill – which the DA so named. Unfortunately, the DA got cold feet and crafted their watered-down Western Cape Provincial Powers Bill, which effectively does nothing on its own.”

This leaves the Cape with only one serious solution, and that is Cape independence. Unlike devolution and federalism, secession is ultimately the choice of Kaapenaars. Section 127(2)(f) clearly grants Alan Winde the constitutional right to call a referendum on independence. Despite there being overwhelming evidence that there is widespread appetite for a referendum, Alan Winde refused to do so. 

Just as the CIAG pressured the DA to finally work towards investigating devolution, the Referendum Party (RP) is a spin-off project of the CIAG. It aims to force the DA and Alan Winde to allow the people of the Western Cape to express their democratic will in a referendum on independence. 

RP will work alongside the DA and MPC partners and allow them to form a government in the Western Cape, despite being rejected from the pact. But just because RP will work with the DA doesn’t mean that they are free from criticism. 

Being the least worst isn’t something to celebrate. Without Cape independence, we are doomed to share South Africa’s fate. The Referendum Party will provide Kaapenaars the opportunity to democratically choose their own future in a referendum. Working with the DA to do more than just keep the streets and audit books clean – despite their refusal to allow Kaapenaars to express their democratic will.

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