Of the three parties supporting Cape independence (the Cape Independence Party led by Jack Miller; the Referendum Party led by Phil Craig; and the Vryheidsfront Plus, led in the Western Cape by Dr Corné Mulder), one might very well not make the ballot this year.

With the new registration requirements imposed on parties as-yet unrepresented in Parliament, small parties and new ones face a high barrier of entry, namely that they must collect a portion of signatures representing a certain proportion of the constituency in which they aim to represent themselves. In practice, this barrier is approximately 14 000 signatures.

The CIP has reportedly only managed 200, and will be forced to drop out, according to News24. They wouldn't be alone however, as Change Starts Now, the left-wing party under billionaire and former ANC minister Roger Jardine failed to register as well, as did several other minor parties.

CIP leader Jack Miller claimed that the IEC was intentionally trying to keep them off the ballot, a claim refuted by the IEC, which stated that lawmakers, not the commission, determined the criteria.

Miller has since issued a public statement that they are in fact halfway to achieving the required 7 000 signatures, and should meet the target before the deadline on the 8th of March.

The CIP has been advocating for the independence of the Western Cape since 2007, and garnered 19,180 votes in the 2021 municipal elections, securing two seats in the City of Cape Town council.

The RP has managed to reach the required number of signatures, but has achieved this with digital signatures. Despite confirmation from an IEC representative that they would be allowed to take in the signatures digitally, the IEC rejected the application. This is despite the IEC allowing the use of digital signatures to register voters both at home and overseas.

As a result, the RP will be challenging this ruling in the electoral courts, and likely be supported by the UIM among others in the Multi-Party Charter.

However, the Vryheidfront Plus, who already have parliamentary representation, and therefore will not need to meet the signature requirements for first-time registration, have reaffirmed its commitment to Cape independence in their recently released manifesto:

“the FF Plus supports the various initiatives promoting these solutions, including CapeXit. It is important that registered voters in the Western Cape are afforded the opportunity to express their views on the path of self-determination that they wish to take to greater independence and decision-making about their future, which could ultimately lead to autonomy and possible independence.”

In other news, Daniel Hakumdad, Chariman of the UCT Parliament has recently announced his membership of the Cape Youth Front. Having contested and won eight student body representative elections, the chances are that UCT may become a new stomping ground for Cape independence politics. UCT, being the bellweather for much political change in the country, is an underappreciated territory. The Fallist movement which swept the country last decade began there, and soon spread to other campuses.

With the CIP likely dropping out of competition, the Cape will have two secessionist choices, heading into the May elections - the liberal Anglophone RP, and the conservative Afrikaans VF+. With VF+ support on the increase, and the RP having good showings in recruitment in disillusioned former DA strongholds like Knysna, the possibility of a forced secessionist coalition is within reach.

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