For a long time, there has been speculation whether, if Cape independence comes, it will be recognised, or “allowed”, by the global political establishment. But recent electoral news in the Western world has seen some massive upsets for the current establishment, and it seems that we may be heading into an almost perfect political climate.

There is a major laundry-list of changes favouring more conservative perspectives, from Kissinger’s recent comments that multiculturalism has been a failure, to the success of El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, who by simply locking up violent criminals (an apparently impossible feat for America and Europe), has turned his country from the most violent to the safest in the hemisphere in just a few years.

But while these are seemingly small items in isolation, they become tell-tale signs when seen in context of the power shifts seen across the Western world.

In the Netherlands, the scandal-ridden liberal centrist party, VVD, has been displaced as the top party in the polls by Geert Wilders’ Dutch nationalist party, the PVV, as votes from the centre-right were siphoned off to the new party of former Christian Democrat Peter Omtzicht.

Geert Wilders is known for his hard skepticism of the EU, and having promoted an exit from the EU for the Netherlands, a country with strong economic performance generally regarded as being held back by EU monetary policy and immigration quotas.

The Argentinians have voted for their own maverick, Javier Milei, whose mix of unorthodox monetary policies, and hard-liberal, bureaucracy-slashing libertarianism, have made him a favourite bogeyman for the global left (though his rather outrageous, and sometimes unhinged public persona has somewhat added to this).

And the tide seems to be turning rightward even in the Anglosphere - the UK has seen Nigel Farage, whose support for Cape independence is now public, wooed by the Conservative Party, whose unelected leader has seen a drubbing in the polls following his inability to achieve any of his policy aims, especially curbing mass illegal migration, which is funded by taxpayer money through NGOs, and whose arrivals are treated to 4-star hotel accommodation to the tune of millions of pounds a day.

While the Tories likely face a stonking defeat at the polls should they stay the current course, the present ructions, including the acrimonious departure of Home Secretary Suella Braverman over immigration issues, bode well for populist candidates for leadership, whether it be Boris Johnson or Nigel Farage, both of whom enjoy immense partisan popularity (as well as the ire of the journalistic classes and popular left). There is still just over a year for either challenger to make their move.

But their defeat need not spell doom either - an inside contact in the Labour party has it that the party is increasingly hostile towards the ANC, and finds their stances on many topics in the international community to be repugnant. The party itself has largely been purged of far-left elements anyway, and is led by a mostly Blairite faction.

In Australia, the government was recently defeated in its attempt to offer the tiny indigenous minority veto power over national legislation, as “The Voice” legislation was thumped in every federal division in the referendum.

New Zealand likewise has voted out the Labour government in favour of Nationalist premier Christopher Luxon, whose opposition to affirmative action, as well as opposition to legal cannabis and abortion has made him a figure of outrage on the left in the country.

The deeply unpopular and notoriously corrupt left-wing premier of Canada, Justin Trudeau, is also facing a credible challenger in the form of Pierre Poilievre, who is leading Trudeau by nearly ten points in the polls. They go to the polls next year in October.

More importantly, in America, news has come that among black male voters, Trump is reportedly achieving a plurality of the vote, breaking the racial voting barriers between the parties for the first time in two generations. Facing the hugely unpopular incumbent Joe Biden, against whom the Democratic party has failed to primary a single challenger, it seems highly likely that Trump will face an even weaker political opposition than under Hilary Clinton.

And Republican Party attention has recently shifted to South Africa in  past months, with rebukes against the ANC-run government for their stances on the Donbas War and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as well as increasing proximity to China.

House Republicans even presented a motion of condemnation, HR-145, which may have been defeated at the committee stage, but demonstrates a shift of intention in the party regarding South Africa, regarding whom American governments have not traditionally voiced much criticism.

Sweden too, has seen an upset, as the nationalist government has pivoted dramatically on its previous open-borders policy, as its recent mass immigration wave has now made it the most violent and homicidal place in the European Union. Their new pact with neighbouring Nordic countries could see a general rightward consensus emerging.

Spain, having shifted leftward, finds itself in the position of sharing power with several separatist parties from the Catalan and Basque regions which, while creating some serious risks for Spanish constitutional integrity, does create an opportunity for other separatist movements seeking diplomatic support.

The Catalonia Global Institute, a think tank run by separatist intellectuals in the country, has been in contact with the Cape independence movement, with whom there is some friendly dialogue, although the left factions of the movement (Catalonian separatists are still somewhat split) are generally still hostile to a secessionist movement that might allow white South Africans reprieve from racial discrimination.

In this context, and especially considering the geopolitical stakes, as BRICS gains ever-more power over global sea trade, the opportunity window for an independence government in two- to three years (should the movement score decent victories in the province next year) do not look as bleak as previously thought.

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