The Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) reports a 0.7% decrease in the national wheat harvest from October, totaling 2.15 million tons. The Western Cape’s 19% increase in yield despite the recent floods, has carried much of the burden of compensating for decreases in other provinces.

The Western Cape saw reductions in both maize yield (6%) and area farmed this year, but also saw a significant increase in wheat production, fitting long term trends in the province, which has a different climate from the rest of the country, and focuses on a lot of high-value export crops, including wine and citrus, much like the comparable climates in California and Spain.

Concerns arose over the deterioration in quality due to floods in the Western Cape, a significant winter crop producer, particularly affecting barley and oats. But the wheat crop, while not changing in planting area significantly, saw a 19% increase in crop yield from last year, demonstrating resilience and achieving the second-highest yield in a decade.

But nationally, the overall projected harvest for the 2023/24 season is up 2% from the previous season. The Western Cape, Northern Cape, Free State, and Limpopo are key provinces behind the robust national wheat forecast.  

The CEC indicates the expected large harvest in the Western Cape and Limpopo overshadows declines in other provinces, with KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape, and North West also likely to see decent wheat harvests.

Chief economist Wandile Sihlobo notes that the expected crop of 2.15 million tons surpasses the 10-year average, but that we will be requiring a potential import of 1.6 million tons to meet domestic consumption in the 2023/24 season.

Long term trends in maize production show an increase in crop intensity, as area farmed declines against rising yields:

The 2023/24 canola crop remains unchanged at a record 237,450 tons, while barley and oats production forecasts see reductions of 5% and 13%, respectively. Quality issues in barley are reported following recent floods, potentially influencing import requirements.

While the overall crop size is encouraging, concerns about wheat quality persist, influencing potential import needs. South Africa's wheat industry contributes over 30% to the total gross value of agricultural production, with wheat being a vital grain commodity consumed after maize.

Declining profit margins have seen wheat farmers diversifying into crops like canola and soybeans. South Africa's wheat consumption is the highest in southern Africa, with wheat being the second most important grain commodity consumed after maize.