Paratus, the firearm-owners' rights advocacy group, has released a short study on police attempts at firearms control. It doesn't look good for SAPS
Despite the high rate of violent crime in South Africa, and the increasing reliance on private security, community safety organisations and personal firearms for self-defence, advocates for stricter laws on firearms ownership persist, arguing that reducing civilian firearm ownership would starve criminals of their tools. Yet, a decade's worth of data from the South African Police Service (SAPS) paints a different picture, suggesting that civilian gun owners are not the primary source of firearms for criminals.
As Gideon Joubert of Paratus explains, this should of course be self-evident, but the persistence of left-wing skepticism of this fact requires actual data to point out. His full report can be read here.
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The data reveals an estimated 2.35 million illicit firearms in South Africa. Of that amount, losses of legally owned civilian firearms contribute only a minuscule 0.3%. This means that even without recoveries, civilian losses are not remotely a significantly contribution to the black market. Most of these losses are due to burglaries of the homes and businesses of lawful owners rather than negligence, which of course go largely unpunished by our notoriously corrupt and incompetent police service.
Over the ten-year period from 2013 to 2023, approximately 75,420 firearms were reported lost or stolen from civilians, averaging 7,542 per year. Intriguingly, the SAPS managed to recover more firearms—82,156 in total—than were reported missing during this period, leading to a net reduction of 6,736 firearms in criminal circulation. This recovery rate, averaging over 104% annually, starkly contrasts with the narrative that civilian firearms significantly bolster criminal stocks.
But not only are law-abiding civilians not to blame - the police turn out to be a significant contributor of illicit firearms. SAPS reported losing 8,018 firearms over the same decade, with recovery rates languishing at just 38% (these just being the firearms they are willing to report). Part of the trouble is that the system does not record the right data:
Until at least 2016, state-owned firearm losses were grouped together with losses from individuals and non-state institutions: this will overestimate civilian losses and underestimate the recovery rate for the years in question. From 2019/20 onwards there are no records in the annual reports for state-owned firearm losses, only SAPS firearm losses.
The state's custodianship of arms confiscated during criminal investigations or convictions include around 2.2 million firearms, held by 502 government bodies. But there is a complete lack of accountability, and a real dearth of credible or even basic record-keeping, with many losses going unreported or their numbers unquantifiable. Gaps in oversight and potential corruption are exemplified by the notorious case of SAPS Colonel Chris Prinsloo, where thousands of firearms were sold from police stocks to criminals.
The narrative around gun control often neglects the role of corruption within state mechanisms. Firearms lost or stolen from police evidence stores, and those fraudulently licensed through corrupt practices within the Central Firearms Registry, suggest a more direct pathway for guns to reach criminal hands. This corruption not only undermines law enforcement efforts but also shifts the blame from state mismanagement to civilian ownership, which the data does not substantiate.
The decrease in SAPS's firearm recovery since 2018, alongside rising murder rates, indicates a systemic issue within law enforcement. Effective policing, driven by actionable intelligence, is crucial not only for recovering lost firearms but also for reducing violent crime. The decline suggests a need for reform and revitalization of police capabilities, rather than further tightening civilian firearm laws.
South Africa's current firearm legislation is already stringent, with high costs and extensive processes for obtaining a license. Proposing more restrictions could lead to diminishing returns, potentially leaving law-abiding citizens more vulnerable in an environment where state protection is faltering. The focus should perhaps shift towards enhancing police effectiveness and integrity rather than further encumbering legal gun ownership.
The data-driven analysis challenges the prevailing narrative that civilian gun control is the panacea for South Africa's crime problems. Paratus has suggested a number of changes in approach, both from the state and from the rest of us:
