The first SADC troops have begun withdrawal from the northern frontier of the conflict zone in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, with the remainder due to leave by July.
South African special forces have been fighting alongside SADC, private military companies and Rwandan forces, in an effort to rid the region of Islamist militia who threaten the security of northern Mozambique, since 2021.
The withdrawal comes amid escalating attacks by insurgents in Cabo Delgado, raising concerns about the region's security, particularly with the resumption of TotalEnergies' liquefied natural gas project.
Following an "organ troika" summit in May of last year, SADC decided to extend the mission for twelve months, preparing for a complete troop withdrawal by July 15, 2024, with a phased drawdown starting on December 15, 2023. This follows criticism from the Mozambican government, which alleged that SADC forces showed no initiative in operations, while Rwandan forces have gained recognition for their contributions to the conflict.
South Africa appears to have missed the December deadline by two months.
However Piers Pigou, of the Institute for Security Studies, cautioned at the time that discussions on withdrawal timelines are aspirational, noting discrepancies between the recent field assessment and a previous threat assessment that described Cabo Delgado's security situation as "unpredictable."
Despite considerations to extend the mission for another two years, SADC dismissed this option as too costly, and the decision to withdraw troops by 2024 was deemed more appropriate.
But South Africa is now beginning to engage in military actions with SADC forces and Hutu Power militia in the DRC against Rwandan-aligned Tutsi military forces in the Kivu provinces, and SANDF resources are considered overstretched.
Tensions between SADC and Mozambique have surfaced, with SADC accusing Mozambique of hindering the mission by not providing necessary training requirements and office space, though Rwanda appears not to have required such excuses for their performance.
The mission, which aimed to provide air and maritime support to Mozambique, has faced challenges, including a lack of attack helicopters and maintenance problems with provided boats.
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