The Cape Independence Advocacy Group (CIAG) is laying the groundwork for a grassroots referendum on Western Cape independence, with a planning timeline of roughly two years. This follows a series of opinion polls by Victory Research between 2020 and 2023, which showed a majority of Western Cape residents favour holding a referendum on the issue. While the Western Cape Premier is constitutionally empowered to call such a vote, Premier Alan Winde has repeatedly refused, despite previous promises from his party, the Democratic Alliance (DA).

The CIAG argues that the right to call referendums is a crucial power vested in Provincial Premiers, designed to reflect the will of the people they represent. Denying the public the opportunity to express their views on independence, the group contends, undermines the democratic intent of this constitutional provision. In the absence of action from the Premier, the CIAG believes that an alternative solution lies in a people's referendum, drawing inspiration from international precedents.

Both Canadian and UK courts have, in landmark rulings, emphasised that the power of a referendum rests not in its legal framework but in its ability to definitively capture the public’s will. The Italian province of Veneto provided a notable example in 2014 when, after being denied an official vote, the residents held their own referendum. The overwhelming result compelled the government to increase provincial autonomy. The CIAG plans to follow a similar path and has been in contact with the organisers of the Veneto referendum.

Though the CIAG acknowledges that now is not the right moment for a referendum on Cape independence—allowing the newly formed Government of National Unity (GNU) a chance to address South Africa’s challenges—it insists that preparation is essential. Should the GNU fail, the question of Cape independence could rapidly become more pressing. Even in the best-case scenario, the Western Cape will likely still require greater autonomy, which could only be secured through a referendum. The CIAG is thus calling on supporters to rally behind this initiative, viewing it as a pivotal step towards achieving independence.

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